What will tomorrow look like?
Peter Hoskin 8:45am
It's by-election day today in Glasgow East, and you can expect frequent updates and analysis from the Coffee House team. At the moment, the consensus is that it's too close to call. As Fraser said yesterday, the numbers suggest a narrow Labour victory, but – if you factor in low turnout and the mobilising power of the nationalists – that could be overturned quite easily.
If the SNP do come out on top, then the British political landscape could start looking very different, very quickly. Ominously for the Prime Minister, Steve Richards (who's written the latest Spectator politics column, available here) reports in today's Independent that Labour ministers may already be devising post-Glasgow plans. An uprising, perhaps – in case of defeat? One thing's certain: Downing Street will be very, very worried today.
For the time being, I'm going to sit on the fence on this one. What are CoffeeHousers' predictions?
P.S. A reminder that the best contribution on Glasgow East over at this week's CoffeeHousers' Wall will win a bottle of champagne.
Previous
Comments
Al
July 24th, 2008 10:00amI kind of thought that the SNP had a really good chance, but now I'm not so sure. If I had to bet on it, I'd go Labour, which isn't really a bad thing, if you're a Tory, as Gordon sticking around till the next election = landslide for Dave
john miller
July 24th, 2008 10:24amLabour - by a bigger margin than anyone is predicting at the moment.
Some of the electorate there have voted Labour for 3 generations and they are not likely to defect now.
They will turn out to see off the SNP menace...
Tom
July 24th, 2008 10:26amAm I right in thinking that there has been a boundary change which has reduced Labour effective majority?
xiablo
July 24th, 2008 10:40amSurely a Labour win, but with a much reduced majority. Fraser had it right yesterday - the message to Brown and friends from returning a majority of possibly a fifth of that achieved in 2005 is clear enough.
All the talk of a coup or any challenge to Brown is, unfortunately, only for the amusement of the Westminster village.
Brown was never one to nurture younger talent seeing it, as he did, as competition and the result is a party devoid of talent or inspiration.
Rob
July 24th, 2008 11:29amWhat will tomorrow look like? The same as today. Gordon getting on with the job. Making the right long term decisions for the future. MPs from all parties continuing to fiddle their expenses. It's what they do.
Nicholas
July 24th, 2008 12:39pmI don't want to predict a result but only to comment that whatever the result may be Herr Braun will not be winkled out of his bunker. He is there for keeps.
A GE in 2010 may shift him, but somehow I doubt it, because I fear a lot more is going to happen to our "democracy" between now and then.
Austin Barry
July 24th, 2008 12:52pmThere will be a big swing to the SNP but the atavistic vote will return Labour: a triumph of tribalism over intellect. A substantial swing will though be another kick in the sporran for Broon and provide enormous pleasure to the rest of us.
Old Hack
July 24th, 2008 2:03pmLabour will squeak it by dint of the fact that the SNP candidate is poor and the Labour candidate is good.
It must be hoped that the Lib Dems get demoted to 4th place by the Tories which will have the effect of keeping Brown in place, promoting Cameron and thereby prolonging Labour agonies.
Craig Strachan
July 24th, 2008 3:14pmLabour by a comfortable margin.
TrevorH
July 24th, 2008 3:21pmI have just seen Brown pontificating on world poverty on TV news. There is only one word to describe it - deranged.
He closed by promising to abolish AIDS. Neat trick, no doubt his next will be to walk on water.
Wilfred
July 24th, 2008 6:29pmI'm looking forward to the spin explaining why a much reduced Labour majority is actually a great 'victory' for the government. Should be a laugh.
PoliticiansStink
July 24th, 2008 6:45pmStop sitting on the fence. Labour will win by 3,026 votes.